Trudeau Leaves Canada in Suspense as Anxious Liberals Urge Him to Go
As the holiday period comes to an end, Canadian politics is gripped by a single question: when will Prime Minister Justin Trudeau make a decision about his future?
A Disappearance from Public View
The prime minister has largely disappeared from public view since December 16th, when Chrystia Freeland – his finance minister and once his most powerful ally in cabinet – resigned in devastating fashion. In a public letter, she criticized him, leaving many to wonder what the implications of this move will be for the country.
Pressure Builds Within the Liberal Party
Lawmakers in Trudeau’s Liberal Party keep turning up the pressure on him to quit as the party’s polling numbers slide further. A new survey by Nanos Research has the Conservative Party extending its lead, which could potentially trigger an election if the opposition parties vote "no confidence."
The Risk of a Rebellion
The longer Trudeau waits to address both his party and the country, the more he risks provoking a Liberal rebellion, said Nik Nanos, founder of Nanos Research. "Until now it was primarily Justin Trudeau’s personal brand that was damaged," Nanos explained. "I think now the big issue is how much damage will he inflict on the party brand because he is dragging out what looks like will be his resignation at one point or another."
The Potential for a Leadership Race
If the Nanos polling numbers were to hold up in an election, the Liberals would lose most of their 153 seats. The party has now launched pre-election advertising, focusing on concern that Conservatives will cut social programs.
However, it would be difficult for the Liberals to smoothly transition to new leadership. The Trudeau government’s hold on parliament is precarious, with the three largest opposition parties promising to vote "no confidence." If they do, it will trigger an election.
The Road Ahead for the Liberal Party
A Liberal leadership race may take three months to run – under different circumstances, it would take even longer. Even if the Liberals are able to avoid a forced election during a leadership contest, the winner would have a relatively short period of time, maybe only weeks, before being thrown into a national campaign.
To ensure continuity in government, Trudeau could resign but say he’s staying in office while a leadership race takes place. But "a politically wounded prime minister is not really in a very strong position to negotiate anything with someone like Donald Trump," Nanos said.
Regardless of the outcome, the Liberal Party – which has dominated Canadian federal politics since the Second World War – faces a difficult road ahead in 2025. Even with a new leader, the party would need a major turnaround in public opinion just to save most of its seats, much less hold onto government.
A Leadership Challenge
The Liberals’ worst showing in any national election was in 2011, when they won 19 percent of the popular vote, which translated into just 34 of 308 seats. About two years later, they chose Trudeau as their new leader. "He took the Liberals out of the wilderness," Nanos said. "It very well may be that he will return them to the political wilderness at the end of the next federal election."
As the Liberal Party navigates this uncertain period, one thing is clear: the road ahead will be challenging for Trudeau and his party.
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